摘要
依据《台风业务和服务规定》分析2007年TC业务定位和业务预报精度,结果表明：各方法的平均定位误差均小于25km,强度预报的24小时和48小时近中心最大风速平均误差为3-7m·s^-1和5-11m·s^-1,均与往年相当;综合预报的24小时和48小时路径平均距离误差分别为129.8km和215.0km。虽然路径数值预报的能力仍然不能与综合预报相比,但是多模式集成方法相对于综合预报有正技巧,说明这类方法可能成为改善路径预报的途径之一。强度预报的主要参考仍然是统计类预报方法。
Positioning and forecast errors of tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific in 2007 are analyzed.The results are as follows：（1） The average error of tropical cyclone position is less than 25 km.（2） Error of intensity forecasts is similar to that in past years with an average of 3～7m·s-1 and 5～11m·s-1 for 24h and 48h forecasts,respectively.（3） Average error of synthetic track forecasts is 129.8 km（24h） and 215.0 km（48h）.Although numerical models are still not as good as synthetic forecasters in track prediction,the super ensemble method of multiple numerical models demonstrates positive skill compared with synthetic forecasts.Statistical methods are still widely used in intensity prediction.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期101-105,共5页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
热带气旋
定位
预报精度
tropical cyclone position forecast precision
