摘要
依据高关水库1972～2010年灌溉用水量资料,应用均值标准差法建立4级分级标准。针对用水量为相依随机变量的特点,以各阶自相关系数为权重,运用马尔可夫链模型预测未来一年的灌溉用水量状态,结果表明,该方法直观、预测准确、计算简便,为灌区灌溉用水量的中长期预测提供了新的分析途径。
Based on irrigation water use data of Gaoguan Reservoir from 1972 to 2010, the 4-grad- ing standards are established by applying mean standard deviation method. According to the char- acteristics of dependent random variables of water use and taking autocorrelation coefficients as weights, Markov Chain model is used to predict the state of irrigation water use in the coming year. The result shows that the method is visual, proiections are accurate and calculation is sim- ple, providing a new analytical approach for long-term forcasting of irrigation water use.
出处
《长江工程职业技术学院学报》
CAS
2012年第3期1-4,共4页
Journal of Changjiang Institute of Technology
关键词
自相关系数
马尔可夫链
灌溉用水量
预测
高关河水库灌区
autocorrelation coefficient
Markov Chain
irrigation water use
forecastl Gaoguanreservoir irrigation district
