摘要
利用资料序列的均方差建立干旱指数的分级标准,针对干旱指数为相依随机变量的特点,采取以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,应用加权马尔可夫链模型来预测和分析未来的状态.以南京市1959-2004年共46年的干旱指数为实例对该方法进行了具体应用,取得较为满意的结果,为干旱指数γ的预测分析提供了新的途径.
The drought index is an important indicator of regional drought condition. The standard devia- tion of information series was applied to set up the classification of drought index. Since the drought index is dependent random variables, Weighted Markov chain was introduced to predict the future drought index, weighted by the standardized self-coefficients. Drought index of Nanjing City from the year 1959 to 2004 were a specific application with this method and satisfactory results were obtained. Therefore the weighted Markov method provides a new way to predict future drought condition.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第9期173-178,共6页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家863计划(2006AA100202)
教育部博士点基金(20060294007)
关键词
参考作物腾发量
降雨量
干旱指数
加权马尔可夫链
预测
reference evapotranspiration
annual rainfall
drought index
weighted Markov chain
prediction
