摘要
为了对宝鸡市耕地压力进行定量分析和评价,依据其2000—2009年粮食总产量、总耕地面积、人口等数据,运用回归分析法、时间序列、预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型及SPASS13.0统计分析软件,对宝鸡市2000—2009年的耕地压力时间序列进行分析.选择指数模型、多项式模型和GM(1,1)模型对耕地压力变化趋势进行回归分析,建立了耕地压力的组合预测模型,采用粒子群优化算法求得组合预测模型的最优权重.结果为:宝鸡市耕地压力指数呈上升趋势,生产安全状况不乐观,未来10年粮食耕地压力指数呈现良好趋势.耕地压力指数已经超过警戒值,应该引起人们的重视,在未来10年内,应抓住时机制定相应的政策缓解耕地压力.
In order to carry （Jut quantitative analysis and evaluation of cultivated land in Baoji City,based on the total grain output,the total euhivated area,population and other data of Baoji City from 2000 to 2009,using regression analysis, time series,forecasting theory,the smallest of cultivated land per capita and cultivated land pressure exponent model and SPASS13.0 statistical analysis software, Baoji cultivated land pressure time series were analyzed. Selecting index model, polynomial model and GM （1,1） model of arable land pressure change trend for a regression analysis of the euhivated land pressure combined forecasting model by using particle swarm optimization algorithm, were the optimal combination forecast model weights obtained. The farmland pressure index of Baoji City shows an upward trent, and production safety situation is not optimistic,however the next 10 years showed a good trend. The pressure index of cultivated land has exceeded the warning value,so corresponding policies to alleviate the pressure of cuhivated land should he established.
出处
《河南科学》
2012年第9期1353-1358,共6页
Henan Science
基金
国家哲学社会科学基金(08BZZ031)
陕西省教育厅项目(12JK0647)
宝鸡文理学院重点项目(ZK11021)
陕西省重点学科自然地理学资助
关键词
宝鸡市
耕地资源
利用
Baoji City： cuhivated land
use
