摘要
【目的】为了揭示气象因子对山核桃产量的影响,【方法】以临安市3个主要山核桃产区2008—2010年气象数据和实际山核桃产量数据,运用数学建模和数理统计方法分析山核桃产量和气温、降雨量及降水时间之间的关系,建立回归模型。【结果】结果表明,山核桃产量与花芽分化期日均温度呈显著正相关性,相关系数0.946;与开花授粉期降雨量、降水时间呈显著负相关性,相关系数分别为-0.829、-0.796;模型计算得临界日均气温为2.4℃,降雨量临界值162 mm,平均降水时间临界值21 d。【结论】山核桃花芽分化期和开花期极端天气对其产量有一定的影响。
[Objective]The study was to reveal the effect of meteorological factors on the yield of Carya cathayensis. [Method]The relation between the meteorological and yield data of three main Carya cathayensis producing areas in Lin＇an from 2008 to 2010 was analyzed. The impact of daily average temperature（DAT） ,total precipitation（TP） and days of precipitation（DOP） on the yield was also discussed by using mathematical modeling and statistic method. [Result]The results showed that the DAT at flower bud differentiation stage had great effect on yield and the correlation coefficient was 0.946, and TP and DOP had strong negative correlation with the yield during the flowering and pollination period and their correlation coefficients were -0.829, -0.796 respectively. The speculated critical DAT was 2.4 ℃, the critical TP was 162 mm and the critical DOP was 21 days. [Conclusion]The studies suggested that the extreme weather at flower bud differentiation stage and in the flowering period had certain effect on the yield of Carya cathaye nsis.
出处
《果树学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期877-882,共6页
Journal of Fruit Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(30872047)
浙江农林大学研究生科研创新基金项目(3122013240148)
浙江省科技厅重大项目(2011C14010)
浙江省林业厅项目(2010B09)
中央财政林业科技推广项目(2011TK042)
关键词
山核桃
产量
气象因子
分析
线性回归
Carya cathayensis
Yield
Meteorological factor
Analysis
Linear regression
