摘要
针对我国煤矿安全事故的统计特征,运用POT-GPD模型对我国2003-2011年煤矿安全事故风险的分布特性进行了统计研究,发现我国煤矿安全事故风险具有厚尾性质:尾部风险的发生概率是幂函数递减的,特大事故的发生概率并不是充分小,当前我国煤矿安全事故的严重程度仍不容乐观。研究还发现,与2003-2006年煤矿安全事故相比,2007-2011年煤矿安全事故风险的厚尾程度明显减小,特大事故的发生概率明显下降,表明近年来我国煤矿安全事故的监管取得成效。
After analyzing statistical properties of coal mine safety incidents in China, We apply POT - GPD model to estimate the distribution of coal mine safety risk. The results demonstrate that the tail of coal mine safety risk distribution is heavy, which is power - decreasing, and the probability of huge safety incidents occurring is not very small. It shows that the severity of coal mine safety risk still cannot be underestimated. We also find that the heavy tail Properties of coal mine safety incidents occurring from 2007 to 2011 becomes lower than that from 2003 to 2006, which implies that the current regulation of coal mine safety incidents is effective.
出处
《煤炭工程》
北大核心
2012年第9期107-109,共3页
Coal Engineering
