摘要
南水北调中线工程是解决北方水资源短缺的战略举措。工程输水线路长,沿线交叉河流众多,因此采用了倒虹吸、渡槽等水工建筑物与沿线河流立交,以保证水质。输水工程穿越地区暴雨多发,洪水频繁,给南水北调中线工程安全运行构成较大威胁。为此,基于贝叶斯网络理论,建立了南水北调中线工程暴雨洪水风险模型,分析输水干渠不同区段的风险程度,并根据不同降雨情景实时分析洪水风险,为降低工程的暴雨洪水风险损失提供决策参考。
The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China is a strategic act to solve the problem of water resources shortage in the northern China.The water transfer line has a very long length and crosses a large number of rivers.In order to protect the transferring water from contamination,different hydraulic structures such as the inverted siphon and aqueduct were built to interchange with those rivers.Moreover,the area where the water transfer line passes through is an area of high-frequency rainstorms and floods which can bring significant risks to the operation of the project.In this paper,a flood risk analysis model of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project was developed based on the Bayesian network theory,and it was used to analyze the risk level for different sections of the water transfer line in this project and to simulate the real-time flood risk under different precipitations.The model can provide the decision support and technical assistance for lowering the storm-flood risk loss in the engineering projects.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期10-13,共4页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC56B04-1)
关键词
南水北调
暴雨洪水风险
贝叶斯网络
South-to-North Water Diversion Project
storm-flood risk
Bayesian network
