摘要
Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China （2007-2011） are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types： （1） progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and （2） progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change. Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following： （1） the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents （NLLE） to weather and climate predictability; （2） the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） to the studies of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and （3） new strategies proposed for predictability studies. The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mecha- nisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.
Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China （2007-2011） are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types： （1） progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and （2） progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change. Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following： （1） the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents （NLLE） to weather and climate predictability; （2） the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） to the studies of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and （3） new strategies proposed for predictability studies. The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mecha- nisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.
基金
sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Science (Grant No.KZCX3-SW-230)
the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955202 and 2010CB950402)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41176013 and 41105038)
