摘要
用马尾松毛虫各龄虫口密度的定期调查资料和积温资料,拟合Logistic随机发育模型,结果表明,该模型能精确地描述马尾松毛虫第1代1～6龄幼虫的发育进程。对各龄虫口的时间分布,模型预测值和观察值的吻合程度达90%。对模型参数进行比较表明,除了温度(积温)以外,还有另外一些因素影响着马尾松毛虫的发育进程。
A stochastic phenology model was fitted to periodic sample data on numbers of Ⅰ--Ⅵ instar larvae of Dendrolimus punctatus and data on accumulated DD. The model accurately described the larva development process of D. punctatus. It was ca. 90% correct in predicting the distribution of the occurrence of larvae of various instars. Comparison between model parameters of different data sets revealed that temperature was not the only factor influencing the larva development of D. punctatus.
出处
《中南林学院学报》
CSCD
1990年第2期108-113,共6页
Journal of Central South Forestry University
关键词
随机模型
马尾松松毛虫
发生期
stochastic phenology model, Dendrolimus punctatus Walker, phenology, prediction
