摘要
利用非静力模式 ( MM5 V2 )对 96 1 1号、990 4号等北上热带气旋路径预报进行了试验。用松驰 ( Nudging)四维同化方案和人造热带气旋 ( Bogus TC)技术 ,使得 t- 1 2时刻的模式场 (包括第一个 Bogus TC)通过预积分逐步逼近 t0 时刻的 Bogus TC和同时刻的观测资料场 ;在 1 999年能够得到相隔 6 h一次的 T1 0 6 L 1 9预报场后 ,分别在 t- 1 2 、t- 6和 t0 时刻各制做一个 Bogus TC,通过预积分使得前一个 Bogus TC向后一个 Bogus TC逼近 ,并在从 t0 时刻到 t1 2 时刻的模式积分中考虑 t0 时刻 Bogus TC的影响 ,然后做 48h的路径预报。对比试验表明 ,该方法优于非同化方案 ,特别是对异常热带气旋路径 ,同化方案的预报结果好于非同化方案的结果。
WT5BZ]The tracks of tropical cyclone 9611 and 9904 were predicted by nonhydrostatic model(MM5).The techniques of the nudging of four dimensional data assimilation and bogus TC were employed. The first bogus TC was forced to approach the second bogus TC gradually from t -12 to t 0 during the 12 hours pre integration, which the observation nudging in MM5 was used. When the 6 hr.interval data of T106L19 were obtained in 1999, we created three bogus TCs separately at t -12 , t -6 and t 0.The former bogus TC approached later bogus TC during forecast integration. The influence of nudging was considered during integration from t 0 to t 12 ,and 48 hours forecast was completed. The results show that the forecast skill of track prediction with nudging is better than that without nudging, especially for unusual TC track.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
2000年第1期73-80,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
北京大学地球物理系暴雨监测与预报国家重点实验室资助!资助内容 :台风暴雨研究
