基于SYS-GMM的中国人口结构变化与经济增长关系研究被引量：30

An Analysis of Demographic Change and Economic Growth of China Based on System GMM

下载PDF

导出

摘要本文利用中国29个省份20年的面板数据,探讨了人口结构变化对储蓄、投资和经济增长的影响。我们将人口结构指标引入传统的经济增长模型中,并用固定效应模型和SYS-GMM计量方法分别测算其对储蓄、投资和经济增长的效应。考虑到老年抚养比在经济增长方程的内生性,我们还将滞后30年的就业人数比率作为工具变量来识别老年抚养比对经济增长的因果效应。结果显示老年抚养比对储蓄、投资和经济增长存在显著的正相关。人口增长率对储蓄和投资有着负相关,但对经济增长没有影响。工作年龄人口比率对储蓄存在负相关,对投资和经济增长存在正向影响但估计的回归系数不显著。在加入其他制度和人口变量之后回归结果依然稳定。 This paper examines the impact of demographic change on savings,investment and economic growth by using a panel dataset consist of 29 provinces in China over a 20 year period.Different demographic indicators are introduced into savings,investment within the traditional growth regression frameworks that are estimated using both the fixed effect model and the system-generalized method SYS-GMM.We also use the 30-year lagged employment as instrumental variables to identify the causal effect of old dependency on economic growth.Our results show that the old-age dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on savings,investment and growth.The population growth rate has a negative effect on saving rate and investment but no effect on economic growth.The working age population rate has a negative effect on savings rate,positive effect on investment and growth rates but the coefficients associated with the estimates are insignificant.The findings are robust after controlling for other institutional and demographic variables.

作者李杏 M．W．Luke Chan

机构地区南京财经大学上海财经大学

出处《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第4期81-85,共5页 Statistical Research

基金国家社科基金《我国居民生活质量测定的统计研究》资助,编号:07BTJ011

关键词人口结构变化储蓄率投资率经济增长 SYS-GMM Demographic Change Savings Investment Economic Growth SYS-GMM

分类号 C812 [社会学—统计学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献16

1Adams, Nassau A. Dependency Rates and Saving Rates : comments [ J]. American Economic Review, 1971,6 (61) :472 - 475.
2Arellano, M. and S. Bond. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations [J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1991 ( 58 ) :277 - 297.
3Barro, Robert and X. Sala-I-Martin. Economic Growth [ M ]. New York : McGraw-Hill.
4Bloom, David and Jeffrey Williamson. Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia [ J]. World Bank Economic Review,1998,12(3) :419 -455.
5Blundell, R. and S. Bond. Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models [ J ]. Journal of Econometrics, 1998, vol. 87, Issue 1 : 115 - 143.
6Caselli, Francesco; Gerardo Esquivel; Femando Lefort. Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empifics[ J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 1996( 1 ) :363 - 389.
7Feyrer, James. Demographics and Productivity [ J ]. The Review Economics and Statistics,2007,89( 1 ) :100 - 109.
8Goldberger,Arthur S. Dependency rates and saving rates: comment [ J ]. American Economic Review, 1973 (63) :232 - 233.
9Jappelli T. , Pagano M. Saving, growth, and liquidity constraints [ J ]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1994,109 ( 1 ) :83 - 109.
10Levine, Ross and David Reneh. A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross- country Growth Regressions [ J]. American Economic Review, 1992 (82) :942 -963.

二级参考文献22

1国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(历年),中国人口统计年鉴(历年),新中国50年统计资料汇编(1999)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,..
2Peterson, Peter G. (1999). Gray Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Trarder America and the Wodd, New York: Random House.
3Ram, Ratt. (1982). Dependency Rates and Aggregate Savings: A New International Cross- Section Study. American Economic Review, June 1982, 72, 537- 44.
4Bloom, David E, David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla. (2(D2). The Demographic Dividend : A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. RAND.
5Jackson, Richard and Neff Howe. (2004). The Graying of the Middle Kingdom:the Demographics and Economies of Retired Policy in China. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
6Bloom, David E. and Jeffrey G. Williamson (1997), Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. NBER Working Paper No.6268, National Bureau Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
7Barm, Robert J. (1997), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross - Country Empirical Study. MIT Press.
8Demurger, Sylvie, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao, Gene Chang and Andrew Mellinger. (2002). Geography,Economic policy and Regional Development in China. Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 1 Issue 1 (Winter). Jackson, Richard and Neil Howe. (2004). The Graying of the Middle Kingdom:the Demographics and Economics of Retired Policy in China. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
9Kelly, Allen C. (1973). Population Growth, the Dependency Rate, and the Pace of Economic Development. Population Studies,Volume 27, Issue 3 (Nov , 1973), pp405 - 414.
10Left, Nathaniel H. (1969). Dependency Rates and Savings Rate. American Economic Review, Volume 59, Issue 5, pp886- 896.