摘要
以 5天平均的 5 0 0 h Pa高度场格点高度值为预报因子 ,三峡地区 4个区的候面雨量为预报对象 ,建立简化的典型相关预报模型 ,并采用历史资料独立样本检验的方法进行预报试验。对预报效果的分析表明 :简化的典型相关预报模型对三峡地区面雨量的中期预报有一定的技巧 ,预报效果基本上能达到中期天气预报业务的要求 ,对预报员有一定的参考价值。
The 5 day average of the 500hPa height field as predictors and the pentad regional precipitation of 4 areas in sanxia,China as predictands were used to build the BP Canonical Correlation Analysis(BP CCA)model.The forecast skills of BP CCA for the precipitation of 4 areas were estimated by using a cross validation technique.The forecast test shows that the predictive skills of BP CCA for areal precipitation forecast in sanxia areas are good enough for the operational medium range weather forecast and the results are valuable for reference to forecasters.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第5期20-23,共4页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
"长江三峡二期工程气象保障服务"课题资助
关键词
面雨量
中期预报
降水预报
相关预测模型
canonical correlation analysis areal precipitation medium range forecast
