摘要
根据山东省1985～2010年入境旅游接待人次数和旅游外汇收入的时间序列数据,运用自回归分布滞后模型分析汇率波动、重大事件对山东省入境旅游需求的影响作用。结果表明,人民币升值会减少来鲁的入境旅游者人次数,但是对在鲁旅游外汇收入没有显著的影响。最后提出山东省旅游业应积极应对汇率波动的影响。
According to the number of inbound tourists and the data based on time series of foreign exchange income from 1985 to 2010 in Shandong province, this paper probes into the exchange rate fluctuation, and what in- fluence the important events have on the demand of inbound tourism in Shandong province by using autoregressive distributed hysteresis model. Results show that the RMB revaluation will reduce the number of inbound tourists, but has no significant impact on foreign exchange earnings. It proposes that Shandong tourism should have a positive re- sponse to the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.
出处
《山东青年政治学院学报》
2012年第2期114-117,共4页
Journal of Shandong Youth University of Political Science
关键词
汇率
入境旅游
自回归分布滞后模型
山东省
exchange rate
inbound tourism
autoregressive distributed hysteresis model
Shandong province
