摘要
本文基于我国1987～2010年的数据,运用ADL滞后回归模型的思想和滞后效应的概念,以AIC、SC信息准则作为选择最优滞后阶数的判断标准,对FDI、R&D技术创新变量的滞后期做出估计并进行测算。结果表明,FDI对我国技术创新能力整体上影响并不显著,对核心技术创新能力的提升存在着负向外溢效应,FDI并不能实质性提升我国核心技术创新能力。同时分组研究表明,FDI对我国技术创新能力的影响由1987～1998年期间的不显著影响逐渐演变为1999～2010年期间的显著性影响,而这主要是因为我国自主创新能力的提高强化了FDI技术的消化、吸收和创新的技术扩散过程,但同时FDI对R&D研发创新能力产生了"挤出效应"和"替代效应"。
Based on the annual data from 1987 to 2010, using ADL regression model ideas and the concept of lagging effect. AIC,SC information criterion are used as selecting optimal lag order number of the judgment standard, In order to estimate and calculate the lagged-time about FDI,R＆D and the technological innovation variables. The result shows that FDI has no significant impact on the promotion of technological innovation capability, there exists a negative spillover effect to our core technological innovation capability, FDI can not bring about the substantive upgrade of China＇ s core technological innovation capability. At the same time, study on the two groups of data, shows that the not significant in- fluence in the period from 1987 to 1998 evolved into significant influence in the period from 1999 to 2010 , and the re-sult is mainly due to the strengthen effect of China＇ s independent innovation to the impact of FDI. But FDI created＂ex- trusional effect＂and the＂ substitutional effect＂ to the ability of R＆D innovation.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第2期44-49,共6页
Forecasting
基金
安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(090416259)
