摘要
利用卢卡斯内生增长模型和贝叶斯地理加权回归方法,使用2006—2009年相关数据,对河北省136个县市经济的影响因素进行了回归分析。结果表明,河北省县域经济存在着显著的空间相关性和空间异质性。县域经济的发展特征在不同次区域间表现出很大差别,而在同一次区域内则差别不大,同一市域则差别最小。据此指出在河北县域经济发展的统筹上,应以次区域为单位进行外部协调,以地级市为单位进行内部协调。在总结各地区县域经济发展特征基础上,对"十二五"时期河北县域经济发展提出了政策建议。
Based on endogenous economic growth model and Bayesian geographically weighted regression method, it makes an analysis on the influencing factors to county economy in Hebei using relevant data from 2006 to 2009. The results show that there are significant spatial correlation and spatial nonstationarity of county economy in Hebei province. Clear differences of the influencing factors to economy exist among counties in the sub regions, and small differences among the counties of the same sub regions, and the smallest difference among the counties of the same one. Then, it points out the economic growth of counties from the same parts should be considered a unit for external coordination, and the same city for intemal. On the basis of summary in county development characteristics of each area, it puts forward policy suggestions during the period of 12th five-year plan, considering their advantages and the bottlenecks.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第2期39-45,共7页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD009)
中国农业大学研究生科研创新专项(KYCX2011096)
关键词
县域经济
影响因素
空间差异
贝叶斯地理加权回归
county economy
influencing factors
spatial difference
Bayesian Geographically Weighted Regression
