摘要
运用信息扩散理论分析方法,对益阳市51年的暴雨洪涝进行了风险分析。结果表明,日降水量为50～70 mm的暴雨风险水平全市基本上不存在空间差异,出现机率在50%以上,日降水量≥80 mm的暴雨空间分布不均,日降水量≥200 mm出现机率较小;年暴雨日数≤9 d时湖区风险高于山区,≥10 d时山区风险水平较高;年最大10 d降水量引起的重度洪涝山区的风险重于湖区;4～9月降水过多引发的洪涝风险安化最明显,轻度和中度洪涝均为4年一遇,重度洪涝为7年一遇;4～6月降水过多引发的洪涝主要为轻度和中度洪涝,且多出现在湖区。
Abstract Rainstorm and flood risk was analyzed based on information diffusion theory in recent 51years of Yiyang. The results showed that there was not spatial difference for rainstorm risk level with 50 - 70 mm of the daily precipitation in the whole city, and the occurrence rate was above 50% ; for daily precipitations〉80 mm, the spatial distribution of risk was inequality; for daily precipitationS200 ram, the occurrence rate was less; when annual torrential days was less than 9 d, the risk of the lakes was higher than the mountains, and annual torrential rain days was more than 10 d, the risk of the mountains was higher; the risk of severe floods caused by 10 d of daily precipitation in mountains was more than in lakes; floods caused by rainfall during April-September were different in different areas and obvious in Anhua, both mild and moderate flooding once in four years, severe flooding of 7 years ; floods caused by precipitation during April-June were mainly mild and moderate flooding, and mainly in the Lake District.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2012年第6期3351-3353,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
信息扩散
暴雨
洪涝
风险分析
Information diffusion
Rainstorm
Flood
Risk analysis
