摘要
针对当前严重的水污染问题,采用博弈论对突发性水污染事件治污决策进行了研究,为事件应急管理提供理论支撑与决策支持。基于经典博弈论构建了信息不对称下突发性水污染事件中管理部门与企业之间的信号博弈模型,对信号发送方企业的类型空间、信号空间和信号接收方管理部门的行动空间进行假设,求得了模型的精炼贝叶斯均衡解,并对不同参数取值下的均衡解进行了分析。基于有限理性建立了企业群治污决策进化博弈模型,通过求解模型复制动态方程得到了不同参数取值下的进化稳定策略,并对模型进化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:对突发性水污染事件进行治污决策时,通过公开企业信息与信誉,提高对企业是否采取治污策略的奖惩力度,采用现代先进信息技术降低企业治污与管理部门检查的成本等方式有助于企业采取治污策略。
In view of current severe water pollution problems, this paper researches the pollution control decision of sudden water pollution incidents （SWPI） using game theory to provide theoretical and decision-making support for SWPI emergency management. Signal game model between manager and enterprise of SWPI was established based on the classical game theory for conditions with asymmetric inibrmation, type space and signal space of the signal sender and action space of the signal receiver were assumed, and based on which perfect Bayesian equilibriums were solved, and the equilibrium solutions were analyzed for different parameter values. Evolutionary game model of enterprise cluster based on bounded rationality was set up, replicated dynamic equation of model was solved and evolutionarily stable strategy was proposed for different parameter values, and evolutionarily trend of the model was analyzed. The results show that, in pollution control decision making of SWPI, it is conducive for enterprises to adopt pollution control decisions through methods such as publicizing the information and the credits of the enterprises, increasing rewards and penalties on whether the enterprises had taken pollution control measures, using modern advanced information technologies to reduce costs of pollution control and administrative inspections, and so on.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期184-189,共6页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51079120
51109175
51109177)
公益性行业科研专题研究项目(201001011)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10XJCZH002)
西安理工大学优秀博士学位论文研究基金项目(106-211106)
关键词
突发性水污染事件
信号博弈
信息不对称
进化博弈
有限理性
治污决策
sudden water pollution incident （SWPI）
signaling game
asymmetric information
evolutionary gametheory
bounded rationality
pollution control decision
