摘要
通过建立粮食贸易引力模型,利用1986～2008年度的相关数据,分析影响中国粮食贸易的因素,比如经济总量、人口、粮食产出和二氧化碳排量等。大部分的引力模型和文章结论表明,贸易伙伴的经济总量对一个国家的贸易量有很显著的影响,中国粮食贸易伙伴国的二氧化碳排量对中国粮食贸易量的影响非常显著。所以,在粮食贸易的运输过程中,应该有更好的制度安排,减少二氧化碳的排量,减少温室效应。同时,中国的气温升高降低了粮食贸易量。可能的解释是气候专家所提出来的一定范围内气温的升高可以提高粮食产量,从而减少了中国的粮食进口。
The grain trade gravity mode was constructed and the main influential factors on the grain trade flow were analyzed, such as GDP, population, yield and CO2, and so on. It was found that trading partners＇ GDP has a significant impact on a country＇s total trade, and the partners＇ carbon dioxide emissions is very significant to China＇s grain trade too. Thus carbon dioxide emissions and grain trade show significant positive correlation. Similarly, China＇s average air temperature cannot be directly interpreted as the temperature rises lead to reduce the grain trade.
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第3期99-101,105,共4页
Ecological Economy
关键词
气候变化
粮食贸易
影响机制
climate change
grain trade
influence mechanism
