摘要
本文提出一个飞翔蚜虫非持久性传染植物病毒的侵染概率模型。设置绿色诱盘捕捉着落大豆株冠的蚜虫估计飞翔翅蚜日平均着落株冠次数。采用诱饵植株测定田间一定传染性病株率和飞翔蚜量条件SMV的日侵染率,对迁飞着落蚜虫群体传染SMV的效率进行估计,实现模型对SMV日侵染率的预测。结合显症率预测,对两年三个区的SMV病株率发展动态用模型拟合回测,平均准确度为90.18%,对两年非建模的两区病株率发展动态拟合预测,平均准确度为88.41%。
A new probability model on the field inefction of plant virus transmitted by flight aphids as a nonpersistent manner was deduced.The Green-pan traps that accurately monitor the number and species of aphids alighsing on soybean canopy were used to estimate the average frequency of aphids landimg on the soybean canopy within a day. Measuring the daily infection rate with 'trap plants' under certain disease incidence of SMV and number of flight aphids in the plots were used to calculate the transmission efficiencies of the flight aphids landing on the canopy to realize the model. To combine the prediction model of the symptom appearance rate of SMV with this model simulated the development of disease incidences in two plots during two years to validate the model.The mean of accuracy of all simulation tests was 88.41%.
出处
《植物病理学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第3期219-224,共6页
Acta Phytopathologica Sinica
