摘要
单纯依赖寿命试验对复杂系统进行可靠性评定已受到多种制约,单元为不同分布时的复杂系统可靠性综合与预测问题更是一个棘手的难题。为解决这一问题,提出一种基于计算机模拟仿真的数值解析方法。充分利用单元可靠性信息,用模拟仿真替代寿命试验,根据系统可靠性模型通过逻辑运算生成足够量的系统寿命模拟值,并据此推断系统寿命分布类型、完成拟合优度检验、解析分布参数及可靠性测度的点估计和置信区间。考虑工程实用性,上述全部过程均在计算机上编程实现。这一方法能够有效地解决复杂系统可靠性多级综合所面临的诸多难题,并在风电机组系统可靠性综合与预测中应用。
Only relying on life testing to conduct reliability assessment is limited,and it is an intractable problem to synthesize system reliability which consisted of units with different life distributions.In order to solve the above problems,numerical computation method based on the computer simulation is proposed.Use the unit original information sufficiently and adopt simulation testing instead of life testing,to generate sufficient amount value of simulation of system life by means of logical operation,on the basis of reliability models,and then analyze the simulation data,deduce the distribution of the system life,following test of goodness of fit,estimate the point estimation and confidence interval of the parameters and reliability measure.Allow for practical applicability of engineering,concerns of the above,can be carried out in computer.This approach could work well in the engineering to solve the complex system reliability synthesis,and be applied to system reliability synthesis and Prediction of wind turbine.
出处
《机械工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期2-8,共7页
Journal of Mechanical Engineering
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划资助项目(863计划
2009AA042407)
关键词
风电机组
蒙特卡罗模拟
系统可靠性综合
统计推断
Wind turbine Monte Carlo simulation System reliability synthesis Statistical inference
