摘要
近期的国际原油价格一直处于高位,而中国近年来对进口原油的依赖程度逐渐增加,受国际原油价格冲击程度也逐渐增加。由于国际原油价格是由美元标价的,因此,原油价格冲击首先是通过汇率传递到国内的。选取国外原油期货价格、渤海商品交易所的原油现货连续价格和沪燃油期货价格作为分析指标,采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等方法作为分析工具,检验国际原油价格通过汇率传递对国内油价的影响效果。研究显示,国际原油价格会显著影响人民币汇率,并对国内燃油价格造成冲击。尽管渤商所已经走出了中国原油定价的第一步,但是要争取国际原油价格定价权,还需要进一步完善中国的原油定价机制。
International crude oil prices remain to be high recently. As the dependence of our country on imported crude oil increases gradually , the impact of international crude oil prices is enhancing subsequently. Since the international crude oil price is a dollar-denominated, the first oil price shock is delivered through the exchange rate. In order to analyze the influences of international crude oil prices on domestic oil prices through exchange rate, this paper selected the prices of domestic and foreign prices of crude oil as the analysis target and adopted Cointegration Analysis, Granger causality test and other methods as the analytical tool. Conclusions are drawn as the international crude oil prices can significantly affect the RMB exchange rate, and thereby deliver a great impact on the domestic fuel prices. Although Bohai Commodity Exchange made our domestic crude oil prices first, we should also perfect our country＇s crude oil prices＇ mechanism in order to strive after the rated right of international crude oil prices.
出处
《河北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期94-99,共6页
Journal of Hebei University(Philosophy and Social Science)
关键词
国际原油价格
渤海原油价格
人民币汇率
汇率传递
international crude oil price
crud oil price of Bohai
RMB exchange rate~ exchangerate transference
