摘要
本文分析和讨论了石油价格上涨对美元和人民币实际汇率的影响机制,并运用计量经济模型对石油价格与美元实际汇率之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,石油价格的大幅上涨会导致美元实际汇率的上升;而人民币实际汇率不仅受到美元实际汇率水平的影响,而且还要受到主要贸易国物价水平相对变动程度的影响。因此,在当前国际油价走势及其对世界经济的影响尚不确定的情况下,贸然提高人民币对美元的汇率将是不明智的。
Based on discussion of the influence mechanism of oil shock to the real exchange rate of U.S dollar and RMB,this paper makes an empirical an alysis of the relationship between U .S real exchange rate and oil price.T he result shows the great increase of oil price can induce the rise of dollar' s real exchange rate.But the RMB' s real exchange rate level is affected not only by the real exchange rate of U.S dollar but also by the r elative price level change of other c ountries.So it is unwise to enhance the exchange rate of RMB to dollar hastily when the tre nd of oil price and its impact on the wo rld econo-my is uncertain.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第12期33-39,共7页
Studies of International Finance
