摘要
通过考察2000-2008年间中国对120个贸易伙伴国(地区)的商品出口数据,基于扩展引力模型的面板数据计量方法,本文揭示了我国出口潜力的地区分布与历史演变特征,并测算了后危机时期中国的出口潜力。研究发现,中国的对外贸易自2007年开始转入"出口不足"状态,特别是对亚洲近邻的市场拓展相对滞后。展望后危机时期,在全球经济保持稳步回升的条件下,中国在2010-2015年间潜在的出口增速可达31.1%。综合出口潜力的规模指标与成长性指标,我们认为,后危机时期中国出口市场结构调整的总体导向应是:在保持欧美传统市场份额基本稳定的前提下,将市场重心逐渐转向出口潜力较大的亚洲和拉美新兴经济体,进一步密切中非经贸合作关系,使其成为未来出口市场多元化的潜在对象。
Based on the data of China＇ s commodity export to 120 trade partners in 2000-2008, this paper reveals the region distribution and historical evolving characteristics of China＇ s export potential through the augmented gravity model, and then measures China＇ s export potential in the post-crisis era. The findings suggest that China＇ s foreign trade has fallen into ＂insufficient export＂ status since 2007. Particularly, China＇ s export to Asian countries is relatively lacking. In the post-crisis era, on the assumption of global economic recovering steadily, there may be potential export growth speed of 31.1 percent from 2010 to 2015. Considering the size and growth indicators of export potential, the paper thinks that the basic orientation of adjusting China＇ s export market structure should be transfer market pivot to Asian and Latin American emerging economies with more export potential on the precondition of keeping European and American market shares stable. At the same time, we need to improve on the economic and trade relationship between China and Africa and try to make it potential object of export market diversification in the future.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期12-25,共14页
Journal of International Trade
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目"全球流动性冲击对中国经济的影响与政策选择"(编号:10YJC790376)
上海市教委科研创新重点项目(编号:11ZS185)
上海市教委重点学科(第五期)建设项目(国际贸易:J51702)
上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(编号:2010BJL001)
关键词
出口潜力
引力模型
出口市场多元化
后危机
Export potential
Gravity model
Export market diversification
Post-crisis
