摘要
中国新疆与俄罗斯及中亚国家在"丝绸之路经济带"建设中的地位突出,研究新疆与俄罗斯及中亚国家贸易潜力对加快打造丝绸之路经济带核心区意义重大。文章在剖析中国新疆与丝绸之路经济带核心区国家贸易现状的基础上,基于2006-2018年的贸易数据,通过随机前沿引力模型对丝绸之路经济带核心区贸易潜力进行测算和分类。结果表明,新疆与核心区国家的贸易规模波动呈现上升特征,以出口为主;哈萨克斯坦是新疆最主要的贸易伙伴国,其次是吉尔吉斯斯坦。经济规模、交通基础设施、贸易密集度、共同边界均能够促进双边贸易增长,但新疆与核心区各国的贸易潜力存在差异。新疆应开拓和加强与贸易潜力巨大型国家(哈萨克斯坦)和贸易潜力开拓型国家(乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和俄罗斯)之间的贸易联系,以多渠道的交流机制为平台拓展双边合作。
Xinjiang,Russia and central Asian countries play an important role in the construction of the silk road economic belt.It is of great significance to study the trade potential between Xinjiang and Russia and central Asian countries to accelerate the building of the core area of the silk road economic belt.Firstly,this paper analyzes the trade status of Xinjiang and the core countries of the silk road economic belt.Then,it calculates the trade potential of the core areas of the silk road economic belt through the stochastic frontier gravity model,based on the trade data of Xinjiang and the core countries from 2006 to 2017.The results of this paper show that the trade scale between Xinjiang and the core countries rises significantly in the fluctuation,mainly export.Kazakhstan is Xinjiang’s leading trading partner,followed by Kyrgyzstan.Economic scale,transportation infrastructure,trade intensity and common borders can all promote the growth of bilateral trade,but the trade potential between Xinjiang and core countries is different.Xinjiang should explore and strengthen trade links with countries with great trade potential(Kazakhstan)and countries with pioneering trade potential(Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan and Russia),and expand bilateral cooperation through a muti-channel exchange mechanism.
作者
孙培蕾
SUN Pei-lei(School of economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012,China)
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2020年第7期99-103,共5页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2018SY032)
关键词
贸易潜力
中亚国家
丝绸之路
国家贸易
Trade potential
Central asian countries
The silk road
National trade
