摘要
径流影响因子的合理识别是径流预报的关键和基础,能够为深入探索径流演变规律提供科学依据。以1954-2007年陕西省石头河流域逐月降水资料和石头河水库坝址逐月径流资料为基础,通过成因分析对月径流的可能影响因子进行了初步筛选,其次分别采用相关概率法、单相关系数法和Spearman相关系数法对可能影响因子与月径流之间的关系进行了分析,选取通过显著性检验的因子交集作为各月径流的主要影响因子。结果表明:石头河流域1月和11月的月径流主要影响因子是前一月径流,3月和12月的月径流主要影响因子是前两个月的月径流,2月、4月、7月、8月和10月的月径流主要影响因子是当月降水和前一月径流,5月、6月和9月的月径流主要影响因子是当月降水。
Identification of influencing factors on runoff is a key to runoff forecasting,which could offer a scientific support for further study the evolution of runoff.This paper takes monthly runoff as an example and uses the data on monthly runoff and the average precipitation of the Shitouhe watershed from 1954 to 2007 to select the possible factors according to cause analysis,then uses the relevant probability,single correlation coefficient and Spearman coefficient to analyze correlativity,gets the main factors from the consolidated results of above analysis methods.The results show that runoff occurring in January and November is mainly affected by runoff of previous month,monthly runoff of March and December is mainly affected by the runoff occurring in advance of that two months.Runoff of February,April,July,August and October are affected by precipitation with previous monthly runoff.Runoff of May,June and September is mainly affected by the monthly precipitation.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期108-111,共4页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费专项资金(QN2009088)
关键词
成因分析
相关分析
径流影响因子
石头河流域
cause analysis
correlation analysis
runoff influencing factor
Shitouhe watershed
