摘要
文章借鉴国内外研究指标体系的思想,从宏观经济和市场的角度,选取11个具体指标,建立长沙市房地产周期波动指标体系。采用主成分分析法计算长沙市房地产周期波动综合指数,并对其周期波动特征进行分析。结果表明:长沙市房地产市场存在为期近5年的周期,目前房地产市场发展处于增速减缓期,但从长期看,仍具上涨趋势。房地产开发投资及宏观经济因素是影响长沙市房地产周期波动的主要因素。
By using the thoughts of index system from home and abroad researches as a source of reference and choosing the perspective of macroeconomic and market, we selects 11 specific indicators and establishes the real estate periodic fluctuation index system of Changsha City. Meanwhile,through the method of principal component analysis to calculate the composite index of real estate periodic fluctuation index system of Changsha city, and analyzes the charac- teristics of its periodic fluctuation. The results show that the real estate market of Changsha City has a fluctuation period of nearly 5 years, and that the real estate market now of Changsha City is in recession, but it still has the trend to rise in the long term. And the main factors of real estate periodic fluctuation in Changsha are the real estate developing investment and macroeconomic factors.
出处
《湖南农机（学术版）》
2011年第6期159-161,共3页
Hunnan Agricultural Machinery
关键词
房地产
主成分分析
周期
长沙市
real estate
principle componential
cycle
Changsha city
