摘要
本文根据IPCC碳排放计算指南缺省值计算了新疆1952年-2008年的碳排放量,系统分析了新疆碳排放总量、碳排放结构、碳排放强度的变化,并对新疆碳排放进行阶段划分,最后应用对数平均迪氏指数法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)对碳排放量进行因素分解,定量分析了碳排放不同阶段各影响因素对碳排放的作用程度。结果表明:①1952年-2008年,新疆CO2排放总量和人均CO2排放量不断上升,万元GDP碳排放水平则呈先上升后降低的"倒V"型曲线,煤炭消费是碳排放的主要来源,第二产业能源消费产生的CO2排放量比重最大;②新疆碳排放经历了五个阶段,当前处于经济和碳排放快速增长阶段;③碳排放不同阶段各影响因素的作用程度不同。总体来看,经济增长是碳排放量增加的主要推动因素;能源消费强度的降低(升高)也是促使碳排放减少(增加)的主要因素;能源消费结构由于变化不大,对碳排放的影响很小;计划生育政策实施以来,人口增长对碳排放量增长的推动力逐渐减弱。能源消费强度又进一步受到产业结构和各产业能耗强度的影响,其中,第二产业能耗强度和第二产业产值比重是影响能源消费强度最主要的影响因素。
The carbon cycle is a basic element cycle on the Earth;it plays a vital role in earth system evolution and sustainable development of human society.In the global research of carbon cycle,fossil-fuel energy consumption,cement production,and land use are considered three main sources of carbon emissions related to human economic activities,in which the fossil-fuel energy consumption is the largest anthropogenic source of carbon emissions and the primary cause of increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The annual consumption of fossil fuel emissions to the atmosphere is about 6～6.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide,accounting for 70%of the atmospheric carbon emissions.In this study,carbon emissions in Xinjiang during the period 1952-2008 were calculated according to the default value of the carbon emission calculation guidelines of IPCC.Changes in total carbon emission,carbon emission structure,as well as carbon emission intensity were systematically analyzed.The elements of carbon emissions were separated by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,with the influential factors of carbon emissions being analyzed.Results show that 1）both total carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita increased gradually from 1952 through 2008.The carbon emissions of primary energy consumption in Xinjiang increased from 128×103t up to 43.6×106t;2）The level of carbon emissions per 10,000 Yuan of GDP increased first and then decreased,with the inflection point in 1978;3）Coal consumption is still the major source of CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions from the secondary industry were the largest;4）In general,the carbon emissions in Xinjiang has experienced five phases and it is now in the phase of rapid growth of economy and carbon emissions;5）Influences of these factors varied greatly in each phase.On the whole,economy growth is the main contributor of increases in carbon emissions.Reductions/increases in energy consumption intensity are also the major factor responsible for increases/reductions in carbon emissions.The influence of the energy consumption structure was essentially slight because of its less change and that the impulse of population growth has gradually faded since the family planning policy was launched.The energy consumption structure is influenced by the structure of industries and energy intensity of different industries.The energy intensity of the secondary industry and the proportion of added value of the secondary industry are the major influential factors of energy consumption intensity.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期42-49,共8页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41071113)
中国科学院知识创新工程项目(编号:kzcx2-yw-xb2-01)
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41001384)
关键词
能源消费
碳排放
影响因素
对数平均迪氏指数法
新疆
Energy use； Carbon emissions； Influence factors； Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index； Xinjiang；
