摘要
根据河北省1995-2010年的金融和经济发展数据,运用因子分析、协整、因果检验和灰色关联度对两者的关系及协调程度进行实证分析。结果表明:金融发展与经济增长之间确实存在着长期均衡关系;金融发展规模是经济增长的原因,产业结构影响金融市场发展,金融发展与经济增长之间不同步,存在着不和谐因素;1995-2010年两者之间关系的耦合度很强,但是协调性明显地分成了三个阶段,原因是政府政策目标干预成分较强,内在动力不足。应从产业结构、布局、职能等方面加以优化,以实现区域金融与经济的协调发展。
According to the financial and economic data of Hebei province from 1995 to2010,we use factor analysis,co-integration,Granger causality test and grey correlation degree to discuss the relationship and coordination degree between them.The results show that,there is long term equilibrium relationship between the financial development and economic growth;financial development scale is a cause of economic growth and industrial structure will affect the development of the financial market,but there are some unharmonious factors between financial development and economic growth step.The coupling degree between them from 1995 to 2010 years is very strong,but the coordination was divided into three stages,which means the government policy intervention components is strong,and market economy is lack of inner impetus.We should optimize them from the industry structure,overall arrangement and function,etc,to realize the coordinated growth of regional financing and economy.
出处
《经济与管理》
CSSCI
2011年第12期71-74,共4页
Economy and Management
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
因子分析
协整
灰色关联度
financial development
economic growth
factor analysis
co-integration
gray correlation degree
