摘要
为揭示安徽省1961～2007年的降水变化规律,利用安徽省78个气象站1961～2007年降水数据,基于R/S分析、Mann-Kendall检验和小波变换等方法,对降水时间序列进行了线性趋势分析、突变分析和周期分析。结果表明:47 a间安徽省年降水量呈现出增加趋势,夏、冬季平均降水呈增加趋势,春、秋季呈减少趋势;年降水和季节降水都存在Hurst现象,降水过程具有反持续性;近50 a间安徽省年降水量的变化过程可以分为偏湿、偏干、偏湿3个阶段,四季降水也具有突变性;年降水量和四季降水量均具有周期性。
In order to reveal the characteristics of precipitation variation in Anhui Province during 1961 to 2007, based on the precipitation data and through R/S analysis, Mann - Kendall test and wavelet method, the linear trend, mutation and period a- nalysis of precipitation are analyzed so as to study the variation law. The results show that the annual precipitation increases and so are the average precipitation in summer and winter. However, the average precipitation in spring and autumn is decreasing. The annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Anhui Province had Hurst phenomenon with an anti - continuous rainfall process. The change process of annual precipitation in Anhui Province in the recent 50 years can be divided into 3 stages, inclu- ding temperate wet, temperate dry and temperate wet, and the seasonal precipitation has the feature of mutation. The annual and seasonal precipitation in Anhui Province has an obvious periodical change rule.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2011年第23期23-26,共4页
Yangtze River
基金
安徽省自然科学基金项目(090415212)
安徽高校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2011A143)
