摘要
目的对天津市社区(村)进行流感监测及时空聚集性分析,为及时预警、有效处置流感聚集性区域提供理论依据。方法 2009年10月-2011年2月,在汉沽区汉沽街及4个社区卫生服务站、大田镇卫生院及6个村卫生所进行社区流感样病例每日监测,对所有病例标本进行流感快速检测,阳性者采集咽拭子通过Real-time PCR检测流感病毒核酸,采用SaTScan软件时空重排模型分析流感聚集性。结果流感社区监测显示,2009年10月因甲型H1N1流感大流行出现一个大高峰,证明甲型H1N1流感大流行期间,农村也出现了甲型H1N1流感暴发流行的情况,2010/2011年度流感流行季疫情均较2009年同期明显下降;时空重排扫描分析发现10个有统计学意义的集群,2009年流感样病例(ILI)聚集性区域主要集中在汉沽街、大田镇及周边村(新立村、芦家坞)、大王庄、大田镇及周边村(新立村、大王庄),最有可能的集群为汉沽街(RR=27.44,P=0.0001),其他区域主要为次要集群;2010年流感疫情较平稳,只有大田镇小马杓村出现ILI聚集,并且为最优可能集群(RR=12.53,P=0.0001);经核实确认2起甲型H1N1流感暴发。结论在社区进行流感时空聚集性分析,更准确地发现聚集性区域,早期预警,在公共卫生实践中有一定应用价值。
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal cluster of influenza epidemic in community based surveillance and to provide theological base for timely alert and field investigation. Methods Community-based influenza surveillance was carried out in primary hospital of Hangu street and four clinics,primary hospital of Datian county,and six village clinics from Oct 2009 to Feb 2011.Influenza B rapid test kit was used to test all influenza-like illness（ILI）.The positive specimens were tested for influenza virus nucleic acid with real-time PCR.Space-time permutation scan statistic was used in the analyses and SaTScan software was used to identify clusters of ILI. Results A rural village outbreak in Oct 2009 was detected by community influenza surveillance.Influenza epidemic decreased in 2010.In the space-time permutation scan analyses,we found ten significant clusters in 2009.Four cluster districts were detected.The most likely clusters were located in Hangu street（rate ratio（RR） =27.44,P=0.0001）.In 2010,only one most likely cluster was found in Xiaomashao village and Datian township（RR =12.53,P=0.0001）.Two new H1N1 influenza outbreaks were confirmed. Conclusion Spatial and temporal analysis of influenza can timely ascertain the cluster of ILI and give the early alert,which can be used in public health practice.
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第11期1399-1401,共3页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
天津市卫生局科技基金(09KZ43)
关键词
流感
时空分析
社区监测
influenza
spatial and temporal analysis
community surveillance
