摘要
目的探索前瞻性时空扫描统计量在传染病早期预警中的应用.方法模拟实时监测系统,采用前瞻性时空扫描统计量对2005年成都市102个乡镇街道的3212例细菌性痢疾病例数据进行逐日前瞻性分析,并与单纯时间聚集性分析结果相比较.结果前瞻性时空扫描统计量可提供确切的预警信息,对细菌性痢疾进行时间和空间定位.从6月的预警结果可见,前瞻性时空扫描统计量及时探测到了细菌性痢疾的局部暴发,且预警信号较强(P=0.007).而单纯时间聚集性分析滞后2d发出预警,且信号较弱(P=0.039).结论前瞻性时空扫描统计量能够充分挖掘和利用传染病监测数据中的时间和空间信息,能够提高聚集性探测的及时性和有效性,在实际工作中具有潜在的重要应用价值.
Objective To investigate the application of prospective space-time scan statistic in the early stage of detecting infectious disease outbreaks.Methods The prospective space-time scan statistic was tested by mimicking daily prospective analyses of bacillary dysentery data of Chengdu city in 2005(3212 cases in 102 towns and villages).And the results were compared with that of purely temporal scan statistic.Results The prospective space-time scan statistic could give speific messages both in spatial and temporal.The results of June indicated that the prospective space-time scan statitic could timely detect the outbreaks that started from the local site,and the early warming message was powerful(P=0.007).When the merely temporal scan statistic for detecting the outbreak was sent two days later,and the signal was less powerful(P=0.039).Conclusion The prospective space-time scan statistic could make full use of the spatial and temporal information in infectious disease data and could timely and ffectively detect the outbreaks that start from the local sites.The prospective space time scan statistic could be an important tool for local and national CDC to set up early detection surveillance systems.
作者
殷菲
李晓松
冯子健
马家奇
YIN Fei;LI Xiao-song;FENG Zi-jian;MA Jia-qi(West China School of Public Health,Sichuan Univrity,Chengdu 610041,China;不详)
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第S01期155-158,共4页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(30571618)
关键词
疾病报告
时空聚类分析
人口(种群)监测
Disease notifcation
Population surveillance
Space-time clustering
