摘要
以和龙市1996—2005年国内生产总值、人口总量以及建设用地总量的数据为基础,并将周围同级地区的发展情况作为影响因素纳入预测模型中,基于不同的出发点对其未来的发展拟定了3种不同的发展模式.根据所选取的参照物的指标不同,分别运用时间序列模型对和龙市2020年的建设用地量进行模拟预测.通过比较假定的3种发展模式下建设用地的预测值发现,适度集约模式下的建设用地总量预测值与规划目标值最为接近,仅比规划的目标值高出了263.68 hm2.同时人口与GDP的预测值都与规划的目标值接近,这说明对于和龙市来说适度集约的发展模式实用性最强、可行性最高.
Because of the rapid development of our country＇s economy,we needs a lot of construction land to serve the economic development.Therefore,how to determine the scale of construction land reasonably is concerned by many experts and scholars.In this paper taking Helong city for example,through analyzing the GDP,the total population and the total quantity of the construction land of Helong city for ten years running,we sketch three different development pattern based on different starting for the future development.According to selecting different reference of indicators,we use time series model to forecast the construction land of Helong city in 2020.Through the analysis to the predictive value in 2020 of construction land under the three models,we found that the Moderately intensive mode is the most suitable one,the predictive value of construction land is closest to the planning target,higher than the planned target of the 263.68 hectares.At the same time,population and GDP of the predictive value of the target are approaching the planning,which shows the practicality and feasibility in Moderately intensive mode are the best for Helong city.
出处
《河南科学》
2011年第11期1374-1379,共6页
Henan Science
关键词
建设用地
发展模式
时间序列模型
预测
和龙市
construction land
development model
time series model
forecast
Helong city
