摘要
多元启发理论将决策过程假设为两个阶段:第一阶段,决策者基于一个简化的心理认知捷径和非补偿原则排除了那些不能满足关键维度效用的方案;第二阶段则在剩下的方案中以一种理性选择方式选定效用最大的方案。本文从国际危机行为数据库(ICB3.0)选取了1 946年至2006年美国总统在对外政策危机中使用武力的数据来检验多元启发理论决策两阶段和非补偿原则的假设。本文的逻辑回归分析发现:在决策的第一阶段,作为关键维度的国内政治得失对总统应对外交政策危机时是否使用武力的行为具有显著性影响,这支持了多元启发理论关于领导人基于非补偿原则决策的假设;在第二阶段,理性因素如实力差异、对国际影响的威胁以及国内经济条件等对总统使用武力行为具有显著性影响。这些发现支持了多元启发理论的核心假设。
Poliheuristic(PH) theory postulates a two-stage decision process.The first step eliminates alternatives with an unacceptable return on a critical decision dimension on the basis of a simplifying heuristic and non-compensatory principle,and the second step involves a selection from among the remaining alternatives,employing a more rational strategy.This article attempts to test the two-stage hypothesis and non-compensatory principle of PH model with an emphasis on U.S.Presidential use of military force in foreign policy crises.The data are drawn from International Crisis Behavior(ICB3.0),which spans from 1946 to 2006.The Logistic regression results show that Domestic Political Loss as the key dimension of decision has a significant impact on the use of violence for U.S.presidents in response to a foreign policy crisis,which confirms our hypothesis that leaders tend to make decision based on a non-compensatory principle.And rational factors such as Power Discrepancy,Threats To Influence,and Domestic Economic Conditions are also statistically significant in the second stage.These findings lend credence to PH model.
出处
《国际展望》
2011年第5期58-74,127,共17页
Global Review
