1See Byung -joon Ahn,"The man who woudl BKim",Foreign Affairs, Nov./Dec.1994, pp.94-108; Choong-Nam Kim,"The Uncertain Future of North Korea: Soft Landing or Crash Landing?" Korea and World Affairs, Winter 1996, pp.623-636; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea will Muddle Through", Foreign Affairs, July/August 1997,pp.105-118; Michael Green, "North Korea Regime Crisis: US Perspective and Responses", Korean Journal of Defense Analysis,Winter 1997; Nicholas Eberstadt, The End of North Korea, AEI, Washington DC, 2000; Bruce Cumings, "Feeding the North Korea Mrth", The Nation, September 29, 1997,pp.22-24;Robert Scalapino, "North Korea at a Crossroads", Hoover Essays in Public Policy, No.73, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 1997; Aidan Foster-Carter, Korea's Coming Reunification: Another East Asian Superpower? EIU Special Report No.M212, EIU, London, 1992.
2See Nicholas Eberstadt, The End of North Korea, AEI, Washington DC, 2000; Leon Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1998; Chung-in Moon and David Steinberg, eds., The Kim Dae-Jung Government's Sunshine Policy, Yonsei Press, Seoul, 1999; David Kang, "Preventive War and North Korea", Security Studies, Winter 1994/1995, pp.330-363; Victor Cha, "Is there still a Rational North Korea Option for War", Security Dialogue, Dec.1998, pp.447-490.
3Scott Snyder, North Korea Negotiating Behavior, US Institute of Peace, Washington DC, 1999.Chuck Downs, Over the Line, AEI Press, Washington DC, 1999.
4国际危机研究把"威胁"概念视为各种危机现象的核心.迈克尔·布莱特(Michael Brecher)、格伦·辛迪(Glenn Synder)以及保罗·迪辛(Paul Diesing)学者等把对"决策单元高度优先目标"的威胁视为国际危机的基本特征之一.See M.Brecher,"Towards a Theory of International Crisis Behavior", International Studies Quarterly, March 1977, pp.43-44; G.H.Snyder and P.Diesing, Conflict among Nations, Princeton University Press, NJ, 1977,p.6.
5Klaus Knorr, "Threat Perception", in Klaus Knorr, ed., Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems, Lawrence Press, Kansas, 1976,p.78.Ole R.Holsti, Crisis, Escalation, War, McGill-Queens University Press, Montreal, 1972, pp.51-70.
6Ole R.Holsti, Robert North and Richard A.Brody,"Perception and Action in the 1914 Crisis", in J.David Singer, ed., Quantitative International Politics, Free Press, New York, 1968, pp.123-158.
7Ole R.Holsti, et al., "Perception and Action in the 1914 Crisis", p.152.
8根据Richard Snyder的观点引申而来.Snyder 及其同事将动机分为目的性动机和原因性动机两种.See Richard Snyder et al ., Foreign Policy Decision-Making, Free Press, New York,1963, p.144.
9转引自T.W.Milburn,"The Nature of Threat",Journal of Social Issues, 33, 1977, p.126.
10David Baldwin,"Thinking about Threats", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 15, 1971, pp.71-78.
