摘要
目的建立未来5年深圳市售畜肉中铅含量的预测数学模型,评估人群暴露水平,以了解其可能风险。方法根据2001-2010年深圳市畜肉类食品中铅检测数据,应用灰色预测模型对未来5年深圳市售畜肉中铅含量进行预测,并结合深圳市膳食调查人群畜肉消费量数据,评估人群的暴露水平。结果灰色预测结果显,2011-2015年深圳市畜肉铅含量呈下降趋势,为0.031~0.017 mg/kg;人群畜肉铅暴露量也呈下降趋势,为3.258~1.787μg/（d.人）,占PTDI的1.52%~0.83%。结论目前认为深圳市居民通过畜肉摄入铅的风险较小。
Objective To construct a gray forecasting model for lead contamination in meat in Shenzhen,Guangdong,and to predict the risk of lead poisoning in next 5 years.Methods The forecasting model of lead contamination in meat was constructed with gray systems theories and the data of lead contents in meat for the years between 2001 and 2010.The forecasting model of lead contamination was used to predict the lead content of meat for the next 5 years.Results The model of gray forecasting predicts that lead content of meat is between 0.031 mgs/kg and 0.017 mgs/kg for the next 5 years.The predicted trend of lead content in meat is decreasing.Lead exposure from meat source is predicted as 3.258-1.787 μg/day/person for residents for the years between 2011 and 2015,which equals 0.834%-1.52% of provisional tolerable daily intake（PTDI）.Conclusion The forecasting model of lead content in meat suggests the low risk of lead poisoning in meat in the near future.
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
2011年第10期857-859,共3页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
