摘要
目的建立未来5年深圳市粮食中铅污染的预测数学模型,以了解其污染趋势。方法根据2001～2009年深圳市随机抽检和送检的粮食类产品铅检测数据,应用灰色预测模型、非线性回归预测模型、以及两者相结合的组合预测模型,对未来5年深圳市粮食中铅污染进行预测,以了解其发展趋势。结果灰色预测结果显示2010～2014年深圳市粮食铅污染呈下降趋势,而Cubic曲线模型显示2010～2014年深圳市粮食铅污染呈上升趋势,因为不同的预测方法有各自的优点和缺点,存在一定的误差,所以采用组合预测模型,将两者结合起来,结果显示未来5年深圳市粮食铅污染总体呈上升趋势。结论利用多种预测模型相结合,对未来粮食中铅污染可以得到一定的预测结果。
Objective To establish the mathematical model of lead contamination in cereals for next five years in shenzhen,and understand the trend of pollution. Methods According to lead testing data of cereals randomly sampled and submitted from 2001- 2009 in Shenzhen, apply of gray forecasting model, non-linear regression prediction model, as well as combination forecasting model, and predict lead trend in its development. Results Gray prediction results showed that the lead contamination of cereals was downward from 2010-2014, the Cubic Curve model showed that the lead pollution of cereals was on the rise. Because different forecasting methods had their own advantages and disadvantages, there was a certain margin of error, so using of contamination forecasting model combined of the two. The result showed that the lead contamination of cereals would be generally on the rise for next five years. Use of multiple prediction models for the future of lead contamination of cereals could get a certain degree of prediction, contamination in cereals in Shenzhen for next five years, in order to understand the trend in its development. ResultsGray prediction results showed that the lead contamination of cereals was downward from 2010- 2014, the Cubic Curve model showed that the lead pollution of cereals was on the rise. Because different forecasting methods had their own advantages and disadvantages, there was a certain margin of error, so using of contamination forecasting model combined of the two. The result showed that the lead contamination of cereals would be generally on the rise for next five years.OOnclusion Use of multiple prediction models for the future of lead contamination of cereals could get a certain degree of prediction.
出处
《国外医学（医学地理分册）》
CAS
2010年第2期102-106,共5页
Foreign Medical Sciences：Section of Medgeography
基金
深圳市科技局计划项目(No.200803079)
关键词
铅
污染趋势
灰色预测模型
非线性回归预测模型
组合预测模型
lead
cereal contamination
gray forecasting model
non-linear regression prediction model
combination forecasting model
