摘要
针对大型建设工程项目风险评估过程中存在的困难,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的大型建设工程项目风险评估方法。该方法以建设工程项目的历史数据为基础,结合专家知识,采用贝叶斯网络对风险事件发生的概率进行推理,并对风险事件的重要程度加以评价。最后以某大型场馆建设项目为例,应用该方法进行风险评估。结果验证了该方法的客观准确性。
In order to improve risk evaluation of large-scale construction projects, a risk evaluation model based on Bayesian network is proposed. In the model, the probability of a risk event and the impact degree of a risk factor are obtained based on historical data and expert knowledge. This method is employed in risk evaluation of a large gymnasium construction project. The results show that this method is good for risk evaluation of large-scale construction project.
出处
《工程管理学报》
2011年第5期544-547,共4页
Journal of Engineering Management
关键词
大型建设工程项目
贝叶斯网络
概率推理
风险评估
large-scale construction projects： bayesian network： probabilistic reasoning, risk evaluation
