摘要
利用美国国家可再生能源实验室克罗拉多州测量点2001～2009共9年的数据,研究了太阳辐射曝辐量与日照时长、温度、相对湿度之间的相关关系;并采用逐步回归的方法,逐个引入相关因素进行显著性检验,得到太阳辐射曝辐量的多元回归模型。将该模型的计算结果与实际数据进行对比验证,相关系数r在0.952 5～0.980 6之间,判定系数R2在0.972 4～0.992 5之间,平均百分比误差MPE在1.25%～7.36%之间,模型计算值和实际值的偏差很小,且在极值点吻合较好,基本不受天气类型影响,可用于太阳辐射曝辐量的估计,为光伏电站的规划设计、建模仿真和功率预测等研究提供参考。
Nine years measured solar radiation data for 2001 -2009 from National Renewable Energy Laboratory （NREL） were employed for the correlation analysis between solar radiation exposure and sunshine duration, temperature, relative humidity. The multiple stepwise regression was used to test the relevant factors one by one for statistical significance, and the solar radiation exposure model was obtained. The calculated and measured data were compared, and the results show that Correlation Coefficients （r） are in the range of 0. 952 5 to 0. 980 6, Coefficients of Determi- nation （R2）, 0. 972 4-0. 992 5, and Mean Percentage Errors （MPE）, ＂1.25% -7. 36%. Deviations between the calculated data and the measured data are little, and the curve fits well at the extreme points. The proposed model is weather-proof; it can be used for calculating the solar radiation exposure. The model has great significance in programming and modeling the photovohaic power station, as well as predicting power, etc.
出处
《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第5期53-58,共6页
Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20090036110006)
关键词
光伏电站
太阳辐射
曝辐量
日照时长
多元逐步回归
Photovoltaic power station
Solar radiation
Radiant exposure
Sunshine duration
Multiple stepwise regression
