摘要
本文基于时变参数模型的经验研究表明,改革开放以来我国产业结构升级对经济波动平稳化趋势有着显著的熨平效应,并且随着产业结构升级的不断推进,这种熨平作用亦趋明显。TGARCH模型的深入分析发现三大产业对我国经济波动幅度的影响是非对称性的:第一产业波动对经济总量波动几乎没有影响;第二产业波动对经济总量波动存在杠杆效应,而这种杠杆效应主要是由重工业带来的;但第三产业波动对经济总量波动存在明显的熨平作用,交通运输仓储和邮政业、住宿餐饮业及除五大类之外的其他服务业对经济波动的熨平效应最为显著,而批发零售业、金融业和房地产业因其自身的波动较大,对经济总量波动的熨平效应较小。本文结论的政策性启示是,为保持我国国民经济的平稳化增长势头,必须进一步优化三大产业之间的关系,深入推进产业结构升级,特别是要加快第三产业发展。
The empirical analysis by time-varying parameter model indicates that since reform and opening-up in China, the industrial structure upgrading has a more and more significant stabilizing effect on the amplitude of economic fluctuations. The further analysis by TGARCH model reveals that the three major industries make unsymmetrical effects to the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuation： the primary industry has hardly effect on the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuation ; the secondary industry has leverage effect on the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuation, heavy industry of which makes the maximum contribution; the tertiary industry has the stabilizing effect on the macroeconomic fluctuation, while the stabilizing effect from transportation, logistics , postal industry and accommodation-catering services is most significant but the stabilizing effect from wholesale, retail, financial industry and real estate is less significant. In order to maintain the stabilizing growth of China＇s macro economy, we should continue to promote upgrading the industrial structure, realize the coordinated development of three major industries and emphasize the developing of the tertiary industry especially.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第9期5-16,共12页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金项目(11XNH059)
2011年度广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题(11FJL015)
关键词
产业结构
经济波动
熨平效应
industry structure
economic fluctuations
stabilizing effect
