摘要
在分析劳动力流入、经济发展效应与产业结构升级理论的基础上,文章选取我国261个地级市2001-2015年的面板数据,构建动态面板线性和动态面板门限模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,劳动力流入对产业结构高级化的提升具有显著的促进作用,对产业结构合理化却具有一定的抑制作用;经济发展会显著影响劳动力流入对产业结构升级的作用路径,且存在显著的非线性特征;随着经济发展水平的不断提高,产业结构高级化会发生逆向转换,而劳动力流入对产业结构合理化的抑制作用则显著减弱。这意味着,最优的劳动力流动安排,不仅要满足经济发展的需求,还必须与特定发展阶段所决定的产业结构相适应。
Based on analysis of labor inflow,economic development effect and industrial structure upgrading,this paper uses panel data of 261 cities in China from 2001 to 2015,and constructs dynamic panel linear and dynamic panel threshold models for empirical analysis.The results show that labor inflow has a significant promotion on upgrading of industrial structure and has a certain inhibitory effect on rationalization of industrial structure;economic development will significantly affect the impact of labor inflow on industrial structure upgrading,and there are significant non-Linear characteristics.With continuous improvement of economic development,industrial structure will be reversed,and suppression of industrial structure will be significantly weakened.This means that optimal labor mobility arrangement must not only meet development needs of economic development,but must also be compatible with industrial structure determined at the specific stage of development.
作者
程风雨
CHENG Feng-yu(Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510410,China)
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2020年第7期104-110,共7页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
广州市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2017GZYB31)
广州国家中心城市重点研究基地“十三五”规划项目(2020GZGJC01)
广州市青年文化英才项目(2020GZYC09)
关键词
劳动力流入
产业结构
产业升级
城市经济
Labor inflow
Industrial structure upgrading
Industrial upgrading
Urban economy
