摘要
θｓｅ特型法，一种强对流天气的短期预报方法，它把强对流天气预报化成预报引发背景条件下高能量预警型的强对流大概率事件．用此法在１９９５～１９９８年进行上海地区强对流天气短期预报的试验，准确率达８９％。
The θ se characteristic method for the short range prediction of severe convective weather turns the severe convective weather forecast into a high probability event of the high energy presaging type under the Trigger mechanism condition with an accuracy 89% between 1995～1998 in Shanghai area.
关键词
特型法
条件概率
强对流
天气短期预报
预警系统
θ se characteristic method
conditional probability
short range forecast of severe convective weather
presaging system
