摘要
通过对上海地区１９７６—１９９０年强对流天气个例的统计分析以及对典型个例成因机制的剖析，提出了一种强对流天气的短期预报方法，即θｓｅ特型法。它能预示强对流天气层结的不稳定特征和高能量。为了提高预报时效和减少空报率，引入了引发机制和排空机制。
A method for making short-range prediction of severe convective weather is developed by analysing the physical mechanism for the creation and development of the severe convective weather which occurred in Shanghai area from 1976 to 1990.That′s θ se characteristic method.Warning index pattern show convective instability characteristic and high energy.Trigger mechanism and removal mechanism are introduced to extend the range of the prediction and decrease the wrong prediction rate.This method was tested and has already got good results in Shanghai area.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第3期356-362,共7页
Plateau Meteorology
关键词
强对流天气
预报
短期预报
天气预报
se characteristics Severe convective weather Method of prediction
