摘要
基于企业外包决策的特点,考虑市场影响下的自营收益和外包收益双重不确定性,使用实物期权方法构建了适用于部分外包的最优时机决策模型。并结合期权定价和最优停时理论,给出了模型的确定解。研究表明:当模型参数确定后,企业实施部分外包的最优时机取决于外包收益与自营收益预期的相对值;当外包比例较低、自营收益和外包收益的不确定性较高时,实施阈值相对较大,企业应更久地推延外包以获取更多信息。
According to the characteristics of partial outsourcing,this paper considers the uncertainties of future profits both in outsourcing and in-house operation.We develop an outsourcing valuation model based on real option theory,and derive a solution of option price and outsourcing time using optimal stopping-time theory and option pricing theory.Our research shows that the stopping-time depends on the ratio of outsourcing profits and in-house operation profits,and a firm needs to wait longer before outsourcing when it can outsourcing less proportion and when market becomes more uncertain.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期38-42,共5页
Systems Engineering
关键词
部分外包
实物期权
市场不确定性
外包时机
Partial Outsourcing
Real Option
Market Uncertainty
Timing Strategy
