摘要
基础设施建设以及开发环境涉及的不确定性是政府或投资者关注的核心问题之一。实物期权方法是解决不确定性问题的一个有效途径,云理论对于不确定性有更准确的描述。首先,结合实物期权理论及云理论,建立了基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价模型,可以更准确地描述项目的期望与风险程度;其次,结合基础设施建设项目特征,用正态云模型的期望、熵和超熵表示期望现金流现值和投资成本,得到实物期权价值计算方法;最后,通过实际案例分析,验证了方法的有效性,并提出了未来研究的方向与建议。
Uncertainty involved in infrastructure construction and the development environment is one of the core problems which government or investors focused on,real option method is an effective way to solve the uncertainties and cloud theory describes the uncertainty more accurate.Firstly,this paper combines real option theory with cloud theory to set infrastructure construction real option pricing model based on normal cloud,which can more accurately describe the project expectations and risk degree;Secondly,using the characteristics of infrastructure construction project to analyze expectations,the entropy and super entropy of normal cloud model that means present value and the investment cost,getting the real option value calculation;Finally,through the analysis of actual case conclusion validated the effectiveness of the method,this paper puts forward the future research direction and suggestion.
出处
《科技进步与对策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第13期10-13,共4页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71072107)
建设部软科学研究课题(2009-R3-09)
关键词
基础设施建设
实物期权
正态云
熵
Infrastructure Construction
Real Option
Normal Cloud
Entropy
