摘要
针对我国房地产市场的准理性预期特性,从供给和需求分析入手,建立了商品住宅价格的预期模型。采用Eviews软件对武汉市商品住宅市场进行了实证分析研究,验证了所建立模型的准确性,分析结果表明:适应性预期在消费者的价格预期中占据主导地位,消费者在很大程度上借助于先前的价格走势对未来进行预测,尤其是前期住房价格的涨跌幅度大小及持续时间长短对消费者的影响效果明显,市场理性程度不足,从而导致价格脱离实际,波动性增强;其次,预防通货膨胀和追逐资本利得的需求叠加,导致房地产市场中的投资性需求旺盛,对房价的推动作用高于土地价格水平、金融信贷供给量等。
Considering that our housing market has the feature of quasi-rational expectation,this paper establishes a housing price model based on supply and demand.A regression analysis was made by using the data of commercial housing from Wuhan city with Eviews to verify the housing price model.The result showed that the adaptive expectation was dominated in the housing price.Consumers decided the price of commercial houses based on the previous price,especially the range of price grown up or down,and the time it continued.We can conclude that our housing market was irrational,so the price frequently fluctuates,and divorced from real value.Then,the consumers focused on the prevention of inflation,pursued capital profits made the investment demand brisk in the housing market,and it did more favor to raise the house price than financial credit or land price.
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
2011年第1期12-15,共4页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
基金
武汉理工大学自主创新研究基金(2010-ZY-TJ-040)
关键词
预期理论
商品住宅市场
价格模型
expectation theory
commercial housing market
price model
