摘要
本文基于最优跨期模型,探索了预期因素对我国住房价格的作用机制,并结合我国35个大中城市2000-2011年的数据,分析了预期和经济基本面对我国城市住房价格波动的影响。结果显示:从全国范围来看,预期因素对住房价格波动的解释力要强于经济基本面。从东部和中部地区来看,预期收入对住房价格波动的影响要略高于全国平均水平;预期房价对住房价格的影响要明显低于全国平均水平;利率对住房价格波动的影响不显著。
Based on Optimal Inter-temporal Model, this paper explores the mechanism of expectation factors to housing prices and analyzes the influence expectation and economic fundamentals to housing price fluctuation relating the data of 35 cities in China from 2000 to 2011. , The result shows expectation factors carry more weight than economic fundamentals in affecting housing price from the national scope. In the east and middle part of the country, the influence of expected income factor to housing price fluctuation is higher than the average national level. Thirdly, interest rate has no remarkable influence on housing price fluctuation
出处
《南方金融》
北大核心
2014年第1期45-49,共5页
South China Finance
基金
中南财经政法大学研究生创新项目<房地产价格波动预期的成因分析>(项目编号:2012B0410)的资助
关键词
住房价格
预期
最优跨期模型
Housing Price
Expectation
Inter-temporal Optimal Model
