摘要
根据龙羊峡水库入库径流代表站——唐乃亥水文站年及汛期径流量观测资料， 分析了入库径流的变化特征， 并利用灰色系统中的残差序列周期修正 Ｇ Ｍ （１， １） 模型， 对其近期及未来的变化趋势进行了预测
The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System, one of the greatest hydropower stations in China, is located on the boundary of Gonghe and Guinan Counties of the Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, 1 680 km down from the headwaters of the Yellow River The Longyangxia Reservoir holds 247×10 8 m 3 of water Besides its chief function in power generating, the system also works as flood and ice run resistance, irrigation and aquatic production Tangnag Hydrological Station, 110 km upstream, is the representative station for runoff into the Longyangxia Reservoir Runoff at the Tangnag Station accounts for 95% of the inflow to the reservoir As a result, the variation in runoff in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag has a notable impact on utilization of the water resources in the entire Yellow River Watershed However, recently runoff above Tangnag decreases owing to a continuous drought in the watersheds, not only greatly influencing the economy and people's standards of living in the upper reaches, but also curbing the economic development within the Yellow River Watershed To solve these problems, accurately predicting the variation of runoff at the Tangnag Station is indispensable However, satisfied methods are not available at present to determine the variability of water flow, owing to complexity of its intrinsic evolutions, and its close and complicated relationships to climate change In addition, the precision of a runoff prediction is greatly influenced by the long term weather forecasting Therefore, it is essential to analyze the evolution of runoff, and its relationships with climatic factors Hydro meteorological data have been collected at the Tangnag Station since 1956 Based on hydro meteorological data at the Tangnag Station, the variation characteristics of the runoff into the reservoir were analyzed, and a long range forecast model, called period correcting for residual errror series GM(1, 1) model, is applied to predict the recent and long term trends of the runoff into the reservoir The results indicate that the runoff into the reservoir is at end of a low flow period A runoff increase is expected in the coming years
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第3期281-285,共5页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家 "九五"重点科技攻关项目
关键词
变化特征
趋势预测
灰色系统
水库
入库径流
variation characteristics, trend prediction, grey system, residual error series, period correcting
