摘要
本文归纳了水文预报不确定性的来源与分类,综述了国内外对水文预报不确定性的研究进展以及相关文献、方法与模型,展望了水文预报不确定性研究的发展前景。水文预报的不确定性始终存在,并制约防洪调度决策的正确性,水文预报结果应该描述为概率的而不是确定的形式,概率水文预报实现了预报与决策的耦合。
This paper concludes the resumes associated with forecasting uncertainty. The recent advancement of literatures, methodology and models used to deal with forecasting uncertainty are concisely reviewed. The future research directions and prospect are suggested and recommended. Forecasting uncertainty in hydrology has always been in existence, which has restricted the correctness of flood warning and control decision-making. If the forecasting results could be expressed in probabilistic, rather than deterministic form, then flood forecasting and decision-making processes can be combined together.
出处
《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2006年第1期15-21,共7页
Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)
基金
国家重大基础研究前期专项(2003CCA00200)
关键词
水文预报不确定性
概率水文预报
贝叶斯方法
定量降水预报
forecasting uncertainty in hydrology
probabilistic forecasting
Bayesian method
quantitative precipitation forecasting
