摘要
集成曲线估计模型和灰色数列模型,研究耕地总量在1983-2006年间的变化过程以及在2010～2020年间的变化态势,分析政府行为在耕地总量减少中的责任和在保护耕地中的作为。研究结果:2020年耕地总量可能低于新的耕地红线,政府对耕地减少负有不可推卸的责任。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the government-driven mechanism affecting the reduction of cultivated land and the performance for the cultivated land protected by governments in China.The integrated curve estimation model and the gray series model are employed to study the total cultivated land change process during 1983 and 2006,and predict the change tendency from 2010 to 2020.A comprehensive method was used to analysis the governments＇ behavior how to result to reducing the total cultivated land in the driving role and their responsibility for protecting the arable land.The results indicate：in 2020 the total cultivated land may be lower than the Red Line.The Governments should have been inescapable responsibility for the arable reduced land.
出处
《国土与自然资源研究》
北大核心
2011年第2期34-37,共4页
Territory & Natural Resources Study
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目(10XJY0021)
绵阳师范学院科研基金(MA2009008)
关键词
曲线估计模型
灰色数列模型
保护耕地
Curve estimation model
GM（1
1） model
the protection of cultivated land
