摘要
针对GM(1,1)幂模型的固有缺陷,通过优化灰导数构建了IGM(1,1)幂模型,指出该模型可对呈S型曲线增长或增长处于饱和阶段的中长期负荷数据及增长型负荷数据建模,选取不同参数,可将GM(1,1)幂模型转换为GM(1,1)、Verhulst及Gompertz模型,并采用不同测试数据及电网实际负荷数据验证,结果表明,该模型适用性广、精度高。
According to the inherent defect of GM（1,1） power model,an improved GM（1,1） power model is proposed by optimizing grey derivative.To analyze the properties of the solution of GM（1,1） model,it is indicated that the model can apply to the middle and long term load forecasting for load growth in S-type or load growth being saturated or load growth being increased.With choice of different parameters,GM（1,1） power model can be transformed to GM（1,1） model,Verhulst model and Gompertz model,respectively.Finally,the improved GM（1,1） power model is verified by different testing data and power load data of actual power system,thus it is proved that the model possesses good adaptability and high forecasting accuracy.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2011年第4期177-179,共3页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
改进的GM(1
1)幂模型
中长期负荷预测
固有缺陷
改进
improved GM（1
1） power model
middle and long term load forecasting
inherent defect
improvement
